What will my property value look like if I rebuild?
A post-fire valuation breakdown for LA homes.
Before diving in, keep in mind that this isn’t perfect. The goal here is simply to provide some basic numbers and historical context. Every property and project is unique, and the details can vary significantly.
That said…looking at historical trends, your property is likely to gain value post rebuild. Land in LA is scarce, and as we all know, the sprawl is massive. For decades, Los Angeles real estate has appreciated steadily at about 3–5% annually. Both Altadena and the Pacific Palisades are well-positioned in terms of location and accessibility, making them both attractive areas now, and in the future.
Zoning & Pre-Fire Home Values
Altadena:
Zoning: Single-family properties can build 25% of the total lot size + 1,000 sq ft.
Example: A 5,000 sq ft lot allows for a maximum 2,250 sq ft of build (1,250 sq ft + 1,000 sq ft)ADUs: ADUs under 800 sq ft are excluded from that cap.
Pre-Fire Values: ~ $800 per sq ft.
Pacific Palisades:
Zoning: Generally, 45% of the total lot size can be used for residential square footage (with some exceptions).
Example: A 5,000 sq ft lot allows for a maximum 2,250 sq ft home.ADUs: Like Altadena, ADUs under 800 sq ft are excluded from that cap.
Pre-Fire Values: ~ $1,600 per sq ft.
Rebuild Cost vs. Post-Rebuild Value
Current construction costs vary significantly between neighborhoods. In Altadena, you can expect to pay around $350–$600 per square foot, while in the Pacific Palisades, costs typically range from $800 to over $1,000 per square foot. This difference in build cost is influenced by factors like site conditions (grading, retaining walls, utility access), design complexity, finish levels…But regardless, when comparing these construction costs to pre-fire property values, there’s a meaninful gap between the cost to build and the market value after construction.
So, let’s look at these numbers:
Altadena (based on 2,000 sq ft home):
Rebuild Cost: $700K–$1.2M
Post-Rebuild Value (at pre-fire values): $1.6M ($800/sq ft)
Value Added: $400K–$900K
Pacific Palisades (based on 2,000 sq ft home):
Rebuild Cost: $1.6M–$2.0M
Post-Rebuild Value (at pre-fire values): $3.2M ($1,600/sq ft)
Value Added: $1.2M–$1.6M
What We Can Learn from Other Fires
Additionally, there are (unfortunately) a few examples that help us understand what recovery value looks like 3–5 years post fire/destruction, and how these areas tend to increase in value.
Glass Fire (Napa/Sonoma)
Pre-fire median value (2020): $800,000
Construction costs to rebuild: $500-$700/sq ft (2020-2022)
Post-rebuild value (2023): $1.1M-1.3M
Net appreciation: ~45-60%
Woolsey Fire (Los Angeles/Malibu/Ventura)
Pre-fire median value (2018): $1.2M
Construction costs to rebuild: $600-$800/sq ft (2019-2021)
Post-rebuild value (2022): $1.8M-2.2M
Net appreciation: ~50-65%
Paradise, CA (Camp Fire)
Pre-fire median home value (2018): $250,000
Construction costs to rebuild: $350-$400/sq ft (2019-2021)
Post-rebuild value (2022): $390,000
Net appreciation: ~56%
Boulder County, CO (Marshall Fire)
Pre-fire median value (2021): $600,000
Construction costs to rebuild: $450-550/sq ft (2022-2023)
Post-rebuild value (2024): $850,000-$900,000
Net appreciation: ~45%
In many of these redeveloped areas, property values increased by 45% or more within just 3 to 4 years following the fires. The bottom line: rebuilt neighborhoods often come back stronger, and more valuable, than before. Newer homes bring modern design and amenities (new HVAC, plumbing, better insulation, more efficient windows, piping etc.) everything built today is far more energy efficient than homes built last century. In addition to the home itself, updated infrastructure like parks, streets, utilities, and commercial areas typically add monetary value. Every community is different, of course, but we can already see positive signs. The newly rebuilt Loma Park in Altadena is going to be a neighborhood anchor and reflects a promising vision for what can emerge from this devastating event. Pacific Palisades Rec Center is moving forward as well.
What Could That Mean for LA?
If Los Angeles neighborhoods continue to follow historical trends, and property values rise after rebuilding, here’s a projection of what that could look like based on the same 2,000 sq ft build and figures referenced above:
| Location | Rebuild Cost | Post-Rebuild Value | Projected 40% Increase by 2029 | Value Gained |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altadena | $700K - $1.2M | $1.6M | $2.24M | $1.14M - $1.54M |
| Palisades | $1.6M - $2.0M | $3.2M | $4.48M | $2.48M - $2.88M |
If you’d like to dive into specifics for your lot or have questions about a potential build, feel free to reach out to me directly at ethan@andhaus.co.